Category Archives: Crimson Contagion

31 Costco Employees Positive for COVID-19 at 4 Silicon Valley locations.

By Michael G. Stogner

I asked San Mateo County Manager Mike Callagy How many San Mateo County Costco Employees have tested positive? His response was “Michael I do not have that information.” That would be good for the Residents of SMC to know.

The cases were reported to the county by Costco after workers reported their diagnoses to the company. 

Where were they tested and by who?

The LATIMES reported today that 31 employees from four locations in Santa Clara County have tested positive for COVID-19.

The largest cluster of coronavirus cases among workers of the warehouse chain’s stores in Santa Clara County — Northern California’s most populous — is the Costco in Sunnyvale, where 13 cases were reported between July 23 and 26.

Cases were also reported at Costco locations in San Jose on Senter Road, southeast of downtown, with eight cases between July 17 and 22; Gilroy, with six cases between July 24 and 30; and Mountain View, with four cases between July 15 and 29.

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SMC has 3 ICU Beds and Staff Available

By Michael G. Stogner

That number is supposed to be 13 not 3.

San Mateo County has consitantly had 67 ICU Beds and Staff until July 21, 2020. On that day the County’s Data Base showed 82 ICU Beds and Staff. I asked County Manager Mike Callagy which Hospital/s had the Beds and Staff. His response is below. Today the County says they have 64 Total ICU Beds and Staff. Why?

20% Availability of 67 ICU Beds and Staff equals 13, with the exception being 7/21/2020 16

According to the data published by San Mateo County for the last 10 days the County has not maintained the 20% availability of ICU Beds and Staff.

Below you will see ICU Beds Available 3. Remember they are supposed to have 13.

Screen Shot 2020-07-25 at 8.29.49 AM

Screen Shot 2020-07-25 at 8.29.28 AM

The above chart leaves blank (Gray) July 23-24 Staffed & Available Beds. Why?

Michael Callagy <mcallagy@smcgov.org>
To:Michael Stogner
Wed, Jul 22 at 4:48 PM
Michael,
I don’t know specifically, but I do know many hospitals now are able to easily convert rooms to ICU… it is not like the ICU wards they use to have.  Most rooms now are set up to convert to ICU.
Mike

From: Michael Stogner <michaelgstogner@yahoo.com>
Sent: Wednesday, July 22, 2020 3:30:40 PM
To: Michael Callagy <MCallagy@smcgov.org>
Cc: Jeff Regan <jeff@ssv.com>; Ian MacDougall <ian.michael.macdougall@gmail.com>
Subject: Increased 15 ICU Beds and Staff

CAUTION: This email originated from outside of San Mateo County. Unless you recognize the sender’s email address and know the content is safe, do not click links, open attachments or reply.

Hello Mike,
Can you tell me which hospital/s added 15 more ICU beds and Staff today?
The County has had 67 ICU Beds and Staff from the beginning to yesterday, today you have 82.
Thank You
Michael G. Stogner
San Mateo County News.com

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Shut it down, Start over, Do it Now.

DOWNLOAD THE LETTER** This is an open letter to America’s decision makers, on behalf of health professionals across the country. We’ll update the list regularly with signatures. If you’re a health professional and want to add your name, you can do so here

Dear decision makers,

Hit the reset button.

Of all the nations in the world, we’ve had the most deaths from COVID-19. At the same time, we’re in the midst of “reopening our economy,” exposing more and more people to coronavirus and watching numbers of cases — and deaths — skyrocket.

In March, people went home and stayed there for weeks, to keep themselves and their neighbors safe. You didn’t use the time to set us up to defeat the virus. And then you started to reopen anyway, and too quickly.

Right now we are on a path to lose more than 200,000 American lives by November 1st. Yet, in many states people can drink in bars, get a haircut, eat inside a restaurant, get a tattoo, get a massage, and do myriad other normal, pleasant, but non-essential activities.

Get our priorities straight.

More than 117,000 Americans had died of COVID-19 by mid-June. If our response had been as effective as Germany’s, estimates show that we would have had only 36,000 COVID-19 deaths in that period in the United States. If our response had been as effective as South Korea, Australia, or Singapore’s, fewer than 2,000 Americans would have died. We could have prevented 99% of those COVID-19 deaths. But we didn’t.

The best thing for the nation is not to reopen as quickly as possible, it’s to save as many lives as possible. And reopening before suppressing the virus isn’t going to help the economy. Economists have gone on record saying that the only way to “restore the economy is to address the pandemic itself,” pointing out that until we find a way to boost testing and develop and distribute a vaccine, open or not, people will not be in the mood to participate.

Listen to the experts.

Public health professionals have made clear that even after we’ve contained the virus by staying at home, in order to reopen American cities and towns safely, we will need:

— Enough daily testing capacity to test everyone with flu-like symptoms plus anyone they have been in close contact with over the last 2 weeks (at least 10 additional tests per symptomatic person). We currently have only 35% of the testing capacity we need to meet that threshold. The more people get sick, the more testing is required.

— A workforce of contact tracers large enough to trace all current cases. That’s 210,000 more contact tracers than we had in April, but the number keeps going up as infections rise. Most states are far short of the number of contact tracers they need.

In addition, we need more personal protective equipment (PPE) to keep essential workers like health professionals, emergency responders, and grocery store clerks safe.

Shut it down now, and start over.

Non-essential businesses should be closed. Restaurant service should be limited to take-out. People should stay home, going out only to get food and medicine or to exercise and get fresh air. Masks should be mandatory in all situations, indoors and outdoors, where we interact with others.

We need that protocol in place until case numbers recede to a level at which we have the capacity to effectively test and trace. Then, and only then, we can try a little more opening, one small step at a time.

You should bar non-essential interstate travel. When people travel freely between states, the good numbers in one state can go bad quickly.

If you don’t take these actions, the consequences will be measured in widespread suffering and death.

We need you to lead.

Tell the American people the truth about the virus, even when it’s hard. Take bold action to save lives — even when it means shutting down again.

Unleash the resources needed to contain the virus: massively ramping up testing, building the necessary infrastructure for effective contact tracing, and providing a safety net for those who need it.

Many of the actions of our government thus far have fallen short of what the moment demands. Mr. Trump, federal administration, honorable governors: we remind you that history has its eyes on you.

Sincerely,Matthew Wellington
Public Health Campaigns Director, U.S. PIRG

Ezekiel J. Emanuel, M.D., Ph.D.
Vice Provost of Global Initiatives
Chair, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy
Levy University Professor
Co-Director, Healthcare Transformation Institute
Perelman School of Medicine and The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania

Krutika Kuppalli, MD
Infectious Diseases Physician and Emerging Leader in Biosecurity Fellow at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

William Hanage, PhD
Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health

Saskia Popescu, PhD, MPH, MA, CIC
University of Arizona

David Sherman, PhD
University of Washington

Richard H. Ebright, Ph.D.
Rutgers University

Angela Rasmussen, PhD
Columbia Mailman School of Public Health

Seth Trueger, MD, MPH
Northwestern University

Megan Ranney, MD, MPH
Brown University & GetUsPPE

Sanjat Kanjilal MD, MPH
Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women’s Hospital

Joan Casey, PhD
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

Karen Thickman, PhD
University of Washington, Department of Microbiology

Valerie Bengal, MD, FAAFP former UCSF Associate Clinical Professor
UC Santa Cruz and Capacitar International

Reshma Ramachandran, MD, MPP
National Clinician Scholars Program, Yale School of Medicine

Howard Forman, MD, MBA
Yale University

Ryan Marino, MD
Case Western Reserve University

Eric Goralnick, MD, MS
Brigham and Women’s Hospital/Harvard Medical School

Wade Berrettini, MD, PhD
University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine

Janet Perlman, MD, MPH
UCSF

David Rosen, MD, PhD
Washington University School of Medicine

Drew Schwartz, MD, PhD
Washington University School of Medicine

Krysia Lindan, MD, MS
University of California, San Francisco

Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD
New England Complex Systems Institute

Margaret Handley, PhD, MPH
University of California San Francisco, Department of Epidemiology and Medicine

Thomas Lietman, MD
UCSF

Travis Porco, PhD, MPH
University of California, San Francisco

Veronica Miller, PhD
UC Berkeley School of Public Health

Kenneth Rosenberg, MD, MPH
PHSU-PSU School of Public Health

Jason Newland, MD
Washington University

Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona

Fern P. Nelson, M.D.
Veterans Administration Hospital

James Gaudino, MD, MS, MPH, FACPM
OHSU-PSU School of Public Health & Gaudino Consulting

Bruce Agins, MD, MPH
UCSF

Bonnica Zuckerman, MPH
UVM

Paul Song, MD
PNHP

Katherine Villers, MUA
Community Catalyst

Bethany Letiecq, PhD
George Mason University

Vineet Arora, MD, MAPP
University of Chicago and IMPACT4HC

Pete DeBalli, MD
UCF School of Medicine

Carrie Beckman, PharmD
UC Health

Krys Johnson, PhD, MPH
Temple University

Aalim Weljie, Ph.D. University of Pennsylvania

Michael Kelly, PhD, MSW
Loyola University Chicago School of Social Work

Kevin Foskett, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

John Hansen-Flaschen, MD
University of Pennsylvania

Garret FitzGerald, MD
University of Pennsylvania

Amy Humrichouser, MD
University of Michigan

Aurora Horstkamp, MD
Washington State University

Timothy Ellender, MD
Indiana University

Christine Brewer, MSW, MSN, RN
Villanova University

Pamela Norton, PhD
Drexel University College of Medicine

Diane McKay, Psy.D.
LECOM

Kay Mattson, MSW, MPH
Independent international Public Health Consultant

Dominique Ruggieri, PhD
School of Medicine and Center for Public Health Initiatives, University of Pennsylvania

Eve Bloomgarden, MD
Northwestern University and IMPACT4HC

Nicole Theodoropoulos, MD
UMass Memorial Medical Center

Catherine Marsh, B.A.
EndCoronavirus.org

Patricia Harper, MA
San Bernardino Balley College

Jamie Burke
Colorado State University

Jessica Garfield-Blake, MEd
Knox Trail Middle School Teacher

Jerry Soucy, RN, CHPN
Death Nurse, LLC

Jonathan Moreno, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

Lana Fishkin, MD
Thomas Jefferson University

Jack Colford, MD, MPH, PhD
UC Berkeley

Rohini Haar, MD, MPH
UC Berkeley School of Public Health

Maimuna Majumder, PhD, MPH
Boston Children’s Hospital & Harvard Medical School

Sangeeta Ahluwalia, PhD
RAND Corporation/UCLA

Laura Whiteley, MD
Brown University

Patience Afulani, PhD
UCSF

Vernon Chinchilli, PhD
Penn State College of Medicine

Pamina Gorbach, DrPH
Fielding School of Public Health, UCLA

Judith Hahn, PhD
University of California, San Francisco

Benjamin Lerman, MD
Alta Bates Summit Medical Center

William Davidson, M.D.
PNHP

E John Wherry, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

Mary Sullivan, RN, DNP
University of Massachusetts Medical School

Mark Cullen, MD
Stanford University

Nathan Wong, PhD
University of California, Irvine

Resa M. Jones, PhD, MPH
Temple University

Brandie Taylor, PhD
Temple University

Ondine von Ehrenstein, PhD, MPH
Fielding School of Public Health, UCLA

James Fletcher, MD, FACEP
Brody School of Medicine at East Carolina University

Meenakshi Bewtra, MD, MPH, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

David Albright, MD
UPMC

Michael Gough, MD
Catholic Health System of Buffalo and University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine

Dianne Friedman, Ph.D.
Retired university professor

Karen Walter
University of Washington

Robin Taylor Wilson, PhD
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Temple University

Janice Nash, RN, MSN, DNP
Carlow University College of Health and Wellness

Marsha Ellias-Frankel, MSW
American Association of Marriage & Family Therapists

Mae Sakharov, Ed D
Bucks County Community College

Mae Sakharov, MA, MED, EdD
Bucks County Community College

Brenna Riethmiller, MLIS
EndCoronavirus.org

Shakuntala Choudhury, PhD<
Statistical Research & Consulting LLC

Simin Li
NIST, EndCoronavirus.org, University of Maryland

Jeremy Rossman, PhD
Research-Aid Networks

Judith B Clinco, RN
Catalina In Home Services

Kari-Ann Hunter Thompson, PhD Student
Walden University

Aaron Green, PhD
Iridium Consulting

Kate Sugarman, MD
Unity Health Care

Joaquín Beltrán BA
Speak Up America, EndCoronavirus.org

Susan Safford, Ph.D.
Lincoln University of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

Graciela Jaschek, PhD, MPH
Temple University

Betelihem Tobo, PhD
Temple University

Michelle Davis, Phd
MSD Consulting

Maggie Baker, Ph.D.
Baker & Baker Associates

David Tuller, DrPH
School of Public Health, UC Berkeley

Ernest Wang, MD, FACEP
NorthShore University Health System

Ramzi Nahhas, PhD
Wright State University

Rhoda Pappert, MBA, MHA, FACHE, RN
Retired, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center

Christine Severance, D.O.
Doc Moms

Neil Sehgal, Ph.D, M.P.H.
University of Maryland School of Public Health

Antonio Gutierrez, CPL
United States Marine Corps

Mary McWilliams, MA
College Community Schools, Retired

Kristine Siefert, PhD, MPH
The University of Michigan

Deborah Cohan, MD, MPH
Professor, University of California San Francisco

Sherry Bassi, EdD, PHCNS,BC
University of CT , Western NMU (retired )

Anna Valdez, Ph.D., RN
Sonoma State University

Elizabeth Chamberlain, PhD
University of Colorado Anschutz SOM

Cameron Mura, PhD
University of Virginia

Elizabeth (Libby) Schaefer, MD, MPH
Harvard Medical School/Kaiser Permanente

Joyce Millen, PhD, MPH
Willamette University

Dina Ghosh, MD
Montefiore Medical Center

Jacob Newcomb, MD
VEP Healthcare

Sarah Friedland, LPC, LCMHC, ACS, DRCC
Volunteers of America

Neil Korman, MD, PhD
University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center

Maura McLaughlin, MD
Blue Ridge Family Practice

Lynn Ringenberg, MD
Physicians for Social Responsibility/Florida

Krisztian Magori, PhD
Eastern Washington University

Timothy McLaughlin, MD
Blue Ridge Family Practice

Brian Thorndyke, PhD
Indiana University School of Medicine

Vee Martinez, Medical Assistant
Uci

Denise Somsak, MD
Pediatrician

Jeannine Tennyson, BSN, RN
School Nurse

Mark Peifer, PhD
UNC-Chapel Hill, Department of Biology

Marvin Brooke MD, MS
University of Washington

Michael Halasy, DHSc, MS, PA-C
Mayo Clinic

Kendal Maxwell, PhD
Cedars-Sinai Medical Center

Richard Reeves, MD, FACP
RAR Consulting LLC (Clinical Pharmacologist)

Brenden La Faive, EMT
WI Licensed EMT EMS

Gina Tartarelli, OT
Baystate

John Holmes, PhD
University Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine

Ramnath Subbaraman MD, MSc
Tufts University School of Medicine

Vi Tran, MSW
Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute

Anne Rimoin, PhD, MPH
UCLA Fielding School of Public Health

Marcella Smithson, M.S., MPH, LMFT
CAMFT

Steven Pergam, MD, MPH

Linda Girgis, MD

Dipesh Patel MPH

Mariposa Mccall, MD

Timothy Sankary, MD, MPH

Anthony Orvedahl, MD, PhD

Stanley Weiss, MD, FACP, FACE, FRCP Edin.

Cathie Currie, PhD

Pamela Koehler, JD, MPH

Daisy Sherry, PhD, ACNP-BC

Joyce Garrison, PhD

Susan Walker, MS

Jeffrey Cohn, MD, MHCM

Jared Rubenstein, MD

Marian Betz, MD, MPH

Ann Batista, MD

Morgan Eutermoser, MD

Marc Futernick, MD

Farheen Qurashi, MD, FACS

Megan Whitman, MD

Iris Riggs, PhD

Catherine Cowley-Cooper, RN

Michael Core, MD

Jason Ayres, MD

Craig Norquist, MD

Vasilis Pozios, MD

Michael Becker, DO, MS

Alan Peterson, MD

Kay Vandenberg, MD, FACOG

Melissa Freeman, MD

Robin Aronow, MA

Syra Madad, DHSc, MSc, MCP

Reid Masters, MD

Keelin Garvey, MD

Laurence Carroll, MD

Constance Regan, Ed.D

Cynthia Baum-Baicker, Ph.D.

Ilene Tannenbaum, NP

Virginia Soules, MD

Jean Goodloe, DO

Lindsay Martin, PhD

Teresa Brandt, MD

Annamaria Murray, RN

Judith F. Rand, PhD

Victor Ilegbodu, MD, PhD, MPH

Rebecca Benson, MHA, PBT(ASCP)MLT CM, CHCO, QMBHC

Stanley Weiss, MD, FACP, FACE, FRCP Edin.

Carol Leslie, Chief Program Officer

Briggs Clinco, In-Home Care Client Coordinator

Baruch Blum, BS

Theo Allen, BS

Eunice Wong, BFA, E-RYT, CPT

Michael Hertz, MD, MPH

Patrick Keschl, LPN, NHA

Michael Hertz, MD, MPH

Constance Walker, MD, MA, MPH

Shauna Laughna, PhD

Jeremy Ogusky, MPH

Amparo Adkins, MSN, RN

Kate Shinberg, RN

Sally Rosenfeld, MD

Andrew Frank, MD

Lynn Santillo, RN

Regina Goetz, PharmD, PhD

Martha Christie, MA, Pharm.D

James Perez, MS

Martha Christie MA, Pharm.D

Lise Spiegel, PhD

David Hanson, MD

Jennifer Castro, M. Ed

Oleh Hnatiuk, MD, FACP, FCCP

Elizabeth Holder, JD

Maryanne Llave, RN

Jason Deutsch, MD

Monica Modi, MD

Eric Mueller, MD

Xuan Le, M.D

Tanya Wiseman, BSN,RN

Raul Easton-Carr, M.D.,M.P.H.

Brandon Crossley, CNA

Michelle Crossley, RN

Jacob Malone, RN

Kanika Blunt, RN

Luiza Davila, Healthcare specialist

Barbara McCoy, Teacher

G. J. Ledoux, PhD

Jane Corrarino, DNP, RN, C

Theresa DeLuca, RN

Allison Williams-Wroblewski, Pharm.D.

Macklin Guzman, DHSc, MPH

William David Wick, PhD

Joanna Harran, AGACNP-BC, MSN, APRN, RN

Michael Manning, BS, LMT (3rd year med student)

Karen Smith, DNP, FNP-BC

Monty Bradford, RN

Dominique Motta, RN, BSN, CPN

Russell Etheridge, BSN, RN, CNML

Ariana Ornelas, RN

Sherry Wells, AEMT

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SMC COVID-19 Positivity Rate 29.3%

By Michael G. Stogner

This screenshot is from the County Website at 7:45 AM today the data is for July 14, 2020.

Positivity Rate is 29.3% out of 41 Tested. Remember it’s supposed to be 1500 tested per day. I’m sure I could be reading/interpreting the numbers the wrong way.

What do you see?

Screen Shot 2020-07-16 at 7.47.24 AM

The black box from above.

Screen Shot 2020-07-16 at 12.15.38 PM

July 15, 2020 82 new cases.

Screen Shot 2020-07-16 at 7.37.58 PM

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San Mateo County TESTING and Contact Tracing.

By Michael G, Stogner

Testing and Contact Tracing should be and should have been the Number One Priority of San Mateo County Supervisors.

When will San Mateo County have Testing for All Residents like L.A. County just announced?

Saving Lives, Shelter in Place, No Cure, No Treatment, No Vaccine, Critical Shortages of all PPE, are all important topics, none are more important than Testing and Contact Tracing.

San Mateo County has 771,000 residents, Since January 1, 2020 when BlueDot Inc. first warned of the Virus a total of 13,004 Residents have been tested. That’s 4 months to test 13,004. SMC has No Idea how many residents are infected as of today, How could they?

State officials said they are testing more than 20,000 people a day — a third of the minimal daily tests needed to reopen. The State of California has 40,000,000 residents. You do the math

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced Wednesday that all county residents can now get free coronavirus testing at city-run sites. Until now, only residents with symptoms, as well as essential workers and those in institutional settings such as nursing homes, could be tested.

Stay at Home, Save Lives until Testing and Contact Tracing comes to San Mateo County.

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SMC Health Officer Dr. Scott Morrow COVID-19 Update.

By Michael G. Stogner

Message from April 13, 2020

Please read or reread my statements below from 3/23/20, 3/16/20, 3/10/20, 3/5/20, and 2/27/20 to get a better understanding of where we find ourselves today and actions you can take to protect yourselves and your family.  

We continue to be in a very challenging situation.  This situation has impacted every aspect of our lives and will continue to do so for a long time.  There are several bits of good news.  By many accounts, there has been extraordinary adherence to the Shelter-in-Place (SIP) orders which were put into place here earlier than in other places in the country.  There is no perfect adherence, by any means, but it seems to be the major reason for lowering the rate of new infections to a stable level.  The adherence has been so good, in fact, the models we’re using to predict our future state don’t seem to be able to account for this fact.  It appears that we have flattened the curve, at least this first curve, for now.  I am hopeful we have avoided the catastrophe that New York and Italy experienced, for the time being.  Everyone who is cooperating with the orders and law enforcement and others who are enforcing the orders should be commended in the highest possible way.  Although it may not seem like it, you are doing your part, you are serving your community by limiting your contact with others.  Thank you.  And, as always, special thanks to our first responders, healthcare workers, and other essential workers who are keeping us safe and fed during this crisis.

TRADE OFFS. Without doubt, we will get through this.  But we need to be very deliberate about our next steps.  If we don’t take our next steps carefully, we will experience the worst of what this virus has to offer.  What we’re being faced with, in our immediate future, are trade-offs of the most significant kind.  We have to find a way to increase the immunity of the population (in public health terms, this is called “herd immunity”) slowly and methodically, while minimizing death, with equity in mind, while not overloading the healthcare system, and minimizing economic damage.  Many of these considerations work in opposite directions.  An effective vaccine or effective medical treatments would certainly make our path forward much easier, but neither of these seem to be available to us in the short or medium term.  There is no playbook for the decisions we face or the balance we should attempt to maintain between these competing interests.  Some very smart people have put forth some criteria that should be considered regarding how to slowly unwind the SIP orders and we are considering all of them now.  Most of these decisions have very limited underlying supporting data.  One thing I do know is that releasing the restrictions on movement and gatherings too soon, or in not an incremental enough way, will diminish the gains we’ve made and will unleash the very thing we are attempting to avoid.  Herd immunity is typically 70-80+/-% based on the characteristics of the disease.  So we have a long way to go.  There are no quick fixes.

DATA. There has been some concern expressed that we’re not being transparent enough with the data.  Everyone would like more data.  Well, I too would like more data.  There simply is not a lot of data either about the virus itself, how and why it spreads so easily, how and why it causes such devastating disease in some folks, or how it’s spreading here.  For those who are deeply steeped in working with data, as I and my staff are, you know that datasets have their own personalities, their own strengths and their own weaknesses.  You know that data can either lead you to an approximation of the truth, or data can mislead you and cause you to make incorrect conclusions and, therefore, take wrong actions.  The data we have is, simply, very limited.  This is based on the facts that many characteristics of the virus are unknown and that testing remains very constrained here.  This requires us to synthesize estimates from very different sources of data that may be more qualitative in nature.  For the data that is put up on our website, except for the hospital level data, which is mostly accurate, I tend to look at it skeptically, specifically the cases and the deaths, not because those aren’t accurate from what we know, but because they don’t reflect what’s actually going on very well.  People generally want data to be able to make informed decisions about lowering their risk.  The data we have, if it were to be presented to you on a more granular level, would be misleading, and I believe, downright deceptive.  This is what I think you need to know.  This virus appears to be wildly transmissible especially within households or congregate settings.  Your risk from contracting the infection from any human you encounter in San Mateo County and outside your immediate household continues to be substantial unless you take all the recommended actions to protect yourself.  I hesitate to give you the following numbers, because first of all they are a guess, and secondly because some will think they are too low to take action.  My best guess is that approximately 2-3% of the SMC population are currently infected or have recovered from the infection.  That’s around 15-25,000 people and they are all over the county and in every community.  I don’t believe this number is off by a factor of 10, but it could be off by a factor of 2 to 3.  Without the SIP, it could have well been over 50-75,000 by now, and that would have overwhelmed our healthcare system.  So if you want to get a sense of how many infected or recovered cases are around you, just multiply your city population by 2 or 3%.  My best guess on the number of people who are capable of transmitting the virus now is just under 1%, or approximately 5-7,000 people.  These numbers are likely to be more accurate than the numbers we are sharing on our website.  I know that sounds ridiculous, but these estimates are better than the direct counts that I can currently provide you.  That’s the status of our testing data at the moment.  I anticipate, and am hopeful, that our estimates will improve remarkably over time.

Scott Morrow, MD, MPH
San Mateo County Health Officer
April 13, 2020

Dr. Scott Morrow March 16, 2020 SIP Order

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