Category Archives: Marshall Wilson

San Mateo County COVID-19 Data is Flawed.

By Michael G. Stogner

San Mateo County was the only County in the entire Bay Area to remain off of the State of California’s Watchlist. Why was that a goal for the Supervisors and County Manager instead of Protecting the Residents of SMC.

San Mateo County News.com has reported for weeks that the data did not add up. We also contacted County Manager Mike Callagy to explain the additional 15 ICU Beds and Staff that were reported on a single day only to disappear the next day.

His response was:

Michael,
I don’t know specifically, but I do know many hospitals now are able to easily convert rooms to ICU… it is not like the ICU wards they use to have.  Most rooms now are set up to convert to ICU.
Mike

Its fair to say that a Shut Down is in order until the real data is available.

Why would anybody believe San Mateo County with SFO and San Jose International Airport to the South not be a natural HotSpot.

 

SAN MATEO COUNTY HEALTH DATA

A significant unresolved problem with the State of California’s reporting system for communicable diseases (California Reportable Disease Information Exchange [CalREDIE]), has resulted in significant underreporting of COVID-19 testing results to San Mateo County Health and local health departments state-wide. Local health departments are receiving incomplete information regarding laboratory test results, which affects our ability to identify new cases of COVID-19, to accurately report the testing positivity rate in our community, and to identify the number of persons tested for the last few weeks. Without timely reports of all new lab results, it is impossible for the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and local health officials to identify the extent to which COVID-19 is circulating in the community. It also hinders our ability to conduct effective contact tracing and case investigations to slow the spread of COVID-19.

The extent of this issue is currently unknown, and the expected resolution date is also unknown.  San Mateo County Health is in conversations with CDPH, working to rapidly resolve this issue and creating new paths for laboratory results to be reported to our County. In the meantime, we are continuing to report the testing data we do receive and will make clear to the public which data reported on our website are affected by this issue. Data currently affected are in the County Data Dashboard, the Lab Testing Data Dashboard, the Cases by City map, and the Long Term Care Facility Data Dashboard. CDPH has confirmed that although received data are incomplete, the data are valid for those results we are receiving. We expect the testing positivity rate, the daily and cumulative case counts, and other data points on the County’s COVID-19 data dashboards to change as more complete test results are reported to San Mateo County Health.

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31 Costco Employees Positive for COVID-19 at 4 Silicon Valley locations.

By Michael G. Stogner

I asked San Mateo County Manager Mike Callagy How many San Mateo County Costco Employees have tested positive? His response was “Michael I do not have that information.” That would be good for the Residents of SMC to know.

The cases were reported to the county by Costco after workers reported their diagnoses to the company. 

Where were they tested and by who?

The LATIMES reported today that 31 employees from four locations in Santa Clara County have tested positive for COVID-19.

The largest cluster of coronavirus cases among workers of the warehouse chain’s stores in Santa Clara County — Northern California’s most populous — is the Costco in Sunnyvale, where 13 cases were reported between July 23 and 26.

Cases were also reported at Costco locations in San Jose on Senter Road, southeast of downtown, with eight cases between July 17 and 22; Gilroy, with six cases between July 24 and 30; and Mountain View, with four cases between July 15 and 29.

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San Mateo County Data Dashboard.

By Michael G. Stogner

How does San Mateo County Government tell you that on July 30, 2020 there were 64 New Cases. Where does that data come from? It should come from LAB TESTING DATA. When you look at LTD you’ll see there is NO DATA for July 30, 2020.

 

Screen Shot 2020-07-31 at 8.57.35 AM

64 New Cases July 30, 2020

Screen Shot 2020-07-31 at 9.07.21 AM

Last date of Data is July 29, 2020

Screen Shot 2020-07-31 at 9.07.59 AM

Last date of Data is July 29, 2020

 

7 Day Average Positivity Rate from July 22-28, 2020 is 8.614%

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Supervisor David Canepa is the problem.

By Michael G. Stogner

david_canepa

SMC Supervisor David Canepa

We have plenty of hospital beds and are ready for a surge. I don’t want to take a step back, but we must all be prepared. This will require an extraordinary effort at every level of government to ensure these businesses do not fail,” said Supervisor David Canepa. You can see he has shifted to protect businesses instead of Residents.

Supervisor Canepa knows his statement is Misleading and False ICU Beds are the issue not Surge Beds.

San Mateo County has 67 ICU Beds & Staff and was supposed to have 13 ICU Beds and Staff available to meet the 20% Availability Rate 67 ICU Beds & Staff x 20% = 13.4. You will see on the chart below July 23-24 the gray bar is blank the available beds & staff were 5 and 3. Does that sound like “We have plenty of hospital beds.”

Screen Shot 2020-07-29 at 4.04.32 PM

 

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San Mateo County Finally on State Watchlist.

By Michael G. Stogner

There was ZERO benefit for not being on this Watchlist since July 15, 2020. It’s difficult to find politicians who are not conflicted with the normal powers that get people elected. The Red Flags are simple to spot in a Pandemic when at first they are for protecting the residents and then the shift occurs to “We have got to get back to Work”

  • San Mateo County (has variance) is experiencing an elevated case rate that exceeds the State threshold. The County sees roots of community transmission related to social gatherings without sufficient physical distancing and wearing of facial coverings, as well as higher exposure for residents performing work that involves person-to-person contact and crowded housing conditions that make home isolation difficult.  Key actions to address the increase include: 1) expanding the case and contact investigation team that is following up on every COVID-19 positive case and related contacts to assure safe quarantine and isolation in order to break the chain of transmission; 2) developing strategies to strengthen support for those facing barriers in safely isolating or quarantining; 3) continuing to work with hospital system partners and our Medi-Cal managed care plan partner to monitor and understand hospitalizations, support effective pathways to appropriate levels of care and prepare for surge, 4) continuing to provide infection prevention expertise and specimen collection and test processing support to assist skilled nursing facilities and other congregate care facilities in protecting all residents and staff; 5) continuing to analyze the epidemiology of local spread to inform additional prevention strategies; 6) reinforcing community-wide messaging about the importance of key behaviors individuals can take (wearing facial coverings, maintaining physical distance, avoiding gatherings, washing hands and not touching one’s face) to keep themselves and the community safe; and 7) tailoring communication and outreach to the most impacted populations and communities to strengthen trust and engagement in case and contact investigation. The County continues to partner with cities, schools and community-based organizations and leaders to advocate for the longer-term policy changes that can prevent COVID-19 from exacerbating the burdens shouldered by the lowest income residents and populations of color.  San Mateo County also continues to work with the State’s decisions regarding reduced testing capacity at the Project Baseline sites and revised testing prioritization criteria that contribute to an increased positivity rate.  (Date added to CDM List: July 29, 2020) 

 

Congratulations and Stay Safe

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SMC has 3 ICU Beds and Staff Available

By Michael G. Stogner

That number is supposed to be 13 not 3.

San Mateo County has consitantly had 67 ICU Beds and Staff until July 21, 2020. On that day the County’s Data Base showed 82 ICU Beds and Staff. I asked County Manager Mike Callagy which Hospital/s had the Beds and Staff. His response is below. Today the County says they have 64 Total ICU Beds and Staff. Why?

20% Availability of 67 ICU Beds and Staff equals 13, with the exception being 7/21/2020 16

According to the data published by San Mateo County for the last 10 days the County has not maintained the 20% availability of ICU Beds and Staff.

Below you will see ICU Beds Available 3. Remember they are supposed to have 13.

Screen Shot 2020-07-25 at 8.29.49 AM

Screen Shot 2020-07-25 at 8.29.28 AM

The above chart leaves blank (Gray) July 23-24 Staffed & Available Beds. Why?

Michael Callagy <mcallagy@smcgov.org>
To:Michael Stogner
Wed, Jul 22 at 4:48 PM
Michael,
I don’t know specifically, but I do know many hospitals now are able to easily convert rooms to ICU… it is not like the ICU wards they use to have.  Most rooms now are set up to convert to ICU.
Mike

From: Michael Stogner <michaelgstogner@yahoo.com>
Sent: Wednesday, July 22, 2020 3:30:40 PM
To: Michael Callagy <MCallagy@smcgov.org>
Cc: Jeff Regan <jeff@ssv.com>; Ian MacDougall <ian.michael.macdougall@gmail.com>
Subject: Increased 15 ICU Beds and Staff

CAUTION: This email originated from outside of San Mateo County. Unless you recognize the sender’s email address and know the content is safe, do not click links, open attachments or reply.

Hello Mike,
Can you tell me which hospital/s added 15 more ICU beds and Staff today?
The County has had 67 ICU Beds and Staff from the beginning to yesterday, today you have 82.
Thank You
Michael G. Stogner
San Mateo County News.com

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San Mateo County Manager Mike Callagy ” Pretty Good Position.”

By Michael G. Stogner

Update: July 24, 2020 San Mateo County has had 3 COVID-19 Deaths and as of this morning the County is reporting only 5 ICU Beds and Staff available. That number has been 13 up until July 21, 2020. 20% Availability of 67 = 13 on the bar graph below you will see on the far right the GRAY color is supposed to show how many ICU Beds and Staff are available, for the first time it is BLANK.

Screen Shot 2020-07-24 at 7.42.11 AM

In a SMDJ article this morning titled “Keeping closures at bay in San Mateo County.”

Mr. Callagy says: “Dr. Morrow does believe that we’re in a pretty good position here that doesn’t warrant the type of measure of closing more businesses down.” 

I don’t know where Mr. Callagy got his information about Dr. Scott Morrow’s Belief’s but I do know This is exactly what Dr. Scott Morrow said. Nowhere in this statement does he mention “PRETTY GOOD POSITION.”  He said “We don’t have the resources to do case-control studies given the enormous burden on all the staff at the health department at this time.” “No gatherings outside of immediate households, use facial coverings extensively, and social distancing.”

It’s a shame the SMDJ which has 84,000 readers just promoted the PGP statement. This is a PANDEMIC.

Health Officer Statements

Message from July 20, 2020

Please read or reread my previous statements below to get a better understanding of where we find ourselves today and actions you can take to protect yourselves and your family.

Why is the virus spreading here at it’s current higher level now? I don’t know exactly, but it appears to me that there are 3 major factors. In order to understand what’s going on completely with transmission risks, we would need to do case-control studies.  We don’t have the resources to do case-control studies given the enormous burden on all the staff at the health department at this time, but we can take some educated guesses based on patterns that we are seeing here.

  1. The virus appears remarkably, even surprisingly, transmissible.  At pretty much every point over the last 6+ months, I’ve been surprised, and impressed, at how capable this virus is at moving itself between people.  It spreads in households like wildfire and it spreads in other indoor environments too.  It seems to be everywhere we look.  I know this is hard, we’re all exhausted and frustrated by having to take precautions, but the implication of this fact is that you can’t let your guard down, or be careless, even once, especially if you are at high risk.
  2. Fundamental structural failures of the US economy are being laid bare by the pandemic. These structural issues seem to be a major cause of the transmission we’re now seeing, at least in San Mateo County.  Many elements of the US economy can be viewed as illogical, even immoral in my opinion, in that so many people are forced to live lives of economic desperation, live pay check to pay check, are not paid a living wage, live with no workplace safety nets, like healthcare, like paid sick leave, or other wage protection programs.  While these structural issues are illogical in good times, they are downright inexplicable in times of a pandemic.  These structural problems are at such a massive scale, they can not be ignored.  A majority of people we are seeing infected now are front line workers (people who allow the rest of us to eat, and have electricity, and have our garbage picked up, etc), live in crowded multigenerational conditions, live with lack of trust in, and in fact have downright fear of, government.  Remember to stem the spread of this very transmissible virus, people who are infected need to be separated from others (isolation and quarantine), not go out in public, and not go to work while they are infectious.  Try getting compliance with isolation and quarantine when the infected person is the breadwinner for the family and the family will be out on the street if they don’t go to work.  And when they go to work they will, perhaps, interact at that job with you.  There is not enough enforcement capacity in the world to stop this from happening.  The implication of this is that the current business focused restrictions will do little to stem the spread of the virus when the spread is exacerbated by these conditions.  This requires rapid policy and systems changes at every level of both public and private sectors, from the feds on down, and from the largest corporations to the smallest business.  We need to see much more work in this area, and we need to have less reliance on business sector closures and restrictions, beyond getting businesses to do the basic transmission control measures.  Failure to fix some of these issues will prolong our collective pain.
  3. Complacency is the other majority factor enabling spread.  This is either born of belief systems (this is all a hoax, this isn’t that bad for me, let’s go to a party and get infected), or born of just not paying attention.  Many, many of our infections are related to fairly small gatherings of family and friends.  Birthday parties, picnics, eating at restaurants with mixed households, etc, without the basic precautions being taken.  Most of these gatherings are innocent, no doubt, not intending to spread the virus, but they do spread it, and with far reaching implications.  Please note, your seemingly innocuous get togethers are driving the spread and are a major reason why you can’t go to a restaurant, why you can’t go to the gym, why you can’t go get your hair cut, why kids can’t go to school.  Until, or unless more people get this fact, we will continue to be stuck in the situation we are in.  To get out of this situation depends on all of us.  Our collective best course of action: No gatherings outside of immediate households, use facial coverings extensively, and social distancing.

Scott Morrow, MD, MPH, MBA
San Mateo County Health Officer

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Good News & Bad News

By Michael G. Stogner

The Good News July 20, 2020, No New Cases.

Screen Shot 2020-07-22 at 9.04.35 AM

The Bad News July 20, 2020, 130 New Cases

Screen Shot 2020-07-22 at 9.22.26 AM

More Good News San Mateo County has Added 15 ICU Beds and Staff somewhere. I’ve asked San Mateo County Manager Mike Callagy to tell me which Hospital/s they are at. Up until today SMC has had 67 ICU Beds and Staff.

Screen Shot 2020-07-22 at 3.24.14 PM

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San Mateo County 0.0% Positivity Rate.

By Michael G. Stogner

San Mateo County has reported on its Website that July 10, 2020 it TESTED 9 people and 8  were Negative 1 pending for a 0.0% Positivity rate. That’s one way to get your numbers down.

SMC 0.0% COVID-19 Posiytivity Rate.

 

Screen Shot 2020-07-14 at 7.01.57 AM

The website also says on July 10, 2020 it tested 482  32 Positive rate of 6.6%

July 10 108 Pos.

The website also says on July 10, 2020 that 108 people tested Positive.

You will remember the County is supposed to TEST 1500 people per day.

This is a PANDEMIC act like it.

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Kevin Mullin didn’t say a word about Chinedu Okobi’s Homicide by 6 SMC Employees.

By Michael G. Stogner

Kevin Mullin did not attend or make a public comment at any of the many meetings the Board of Supervisors made available to the public to discuss, Excessive Use of Tasers, Excessive Use of Force, Failure to provide Medical Aid after killing Chinedu Okobi. He did not attend any of the many Concerned Citizens gatherings at the killing site in Millbrae/San Bruno.

Chinedu V. Okobi and George Floyd were both killed by Law Enforcement. Both of the Deaths were ruled a Homicide by the local Coroner. The Four Officers responsible for George Floyd’s Homicide were fired and Criminally Charged. The Six San Mateo County Sheriff Employees who are responsible for Chinedu Okobi’s Homicide are all working and None of them have been criminally charged with anything.

Here is Kevin’s PR piece on voting. You will notice he can’t even mention George Floyd’s Name. “most recently the murder of an unarmed black man by law enforcement.” That could be Hundreds of young Black/Brown Men around America.

I can say this as a Private Victim’s Advocate in San Mateo County for the last 22 years Kevin Mullin is the norm for Elected Officials in SMC.

I know of only one San Mateo County Elected Official that Publicly Questioned, was Chinedu V. Okobi Murdered. That should have been the Obvious question every single elected official should want the answer to.

Sabrina Brennan was that Elected Official. She attended meetings and gatherings.

 

America is confronting an unprecedented “trifecta” that is dominating our daily headlines: A COVID-19 pandemic, a deep recession and most recently the murder of an unarmed black man by law enforcement, illustrative of systemic racism and injustice that has spawned a season of multiracial protests and calls for needed social change. Yet, while the nation is reeling from these crises, duplicitous messaging is being deployed by the occupant of the Oval Office to actively undermine the results of this November’s election: that voting by mail can’t be trusted, that widespread voter fraud exists, and that mail balloting is designed specifically to elect his opponent: FALSE.

Since 2000, more than 250 million votes have been cast via mailed ballots, in all 50 states, according to the Vote at Home Institute with only a handful of fraudulent votes cast. Election law expert and U.C. Irvine professor Richard L. Hasen notes, it is still more likely for an American to be struck by lightning than to commit mail-voting fraud. In addition, there is no evidence to suggest that voting by mail benefits any particular political party.

San Mateo County has shown that voting-by-mail works. My legislation to make San Mateo County an all-mail ballot pilot county demonstrated that the participating electorate more closely resembles the public at large in terms of its diversity and representation, with young people, and voters of color in particular more likely to cast ballots. Thanks to my colleague, Assemblyman Marc Berman’s legislation recently signed into law, this November’s election in California will be an all-mailed-ballot election. Every voter automatically will receive a ballot, postage paid, with community-level “vote centers” as back-up. Voting by mail is the most efficient and effective way to conduct an inclusive and participatory election.

So-called “red and blue” states alike have employed voting-by-mail, but the way states have approached elections administration varies greatly. Elections are fundamentally state and locally administered, and recent examples of mismanagement during primary elections in Wisconsin and Georgia remind us of the challenges facing election administrators across the country. This is a highly charged political atmosphere with huge stakes on the line.

There is a growing recognition that the pandemic must force changes in how elections work, and better ensure more participation moving forward. Attempts to help fund elections with federal dollars have fallen woefully short of what is needed to ensure free and fair elections across America. Since the Bush-Gore contested election in 2000, the efficacy of voting mechanisms and machinery have taken center stage. More recently, we are seeing a coordinated misinformation campaign to attack the integrity of, and undermine the public’s faith in, our elections. False narratives abound, and voter suppression, which disproportionally disenfranchises communities of color, is real and we all suffer the consequences as a result.

While voting-by-mail works, it is not perfect. Signature-matching issues have led to ballots not being counted, a concern that is actively being addressed in California. One other legitimate drawback to voting at home is the time it takes local elections’ officials to count waves of mail ballots and certify the election. The current administration is preemptively trying to undermine faith in the eventual vote count and may try to exploit delays in vote tabulation to question the legitimacy of results, triggering a constitutional crisis. While the long wait for vote-by-mail results is not ideal, it’s in the interest of every vote being counted, which is fundamental to our democracy.

During this tense time when we need leaders who can calm, heal, and build faith, the president has used this period to further divide people and incite violence, all while callously attacking the basic underpinnings of our democracy, like faith in and respect for the work of journalists — essentially a broadside on the First Amendment. The work of journalists and the social media platforms themselves have never been more important in fact checking false claims and advertisements with false information.

Vote as if democracy itself, and its pillars like a free press, the rule of law, and free and fair elections, including the right of every citizen to vote, is on the ballot. Because it is.

 

Kevin Mullin, D-South San Francisco, is speaker pro tempore of the California Assembly and represents San Mateo County’s 22nd Assembly District.

I asked San Mateo County Citizen Advocate Brent Turner for comment on Kevin Mullin Opinion Piece.

Brent Turner

The VOTE BY MAIL  act  is  innocuous to the degree that it reiterates voting by mail procedures. We have used absentee ballots for many years. What is NOT innocuous is the removal of polling places from communities of color. Though Mindy Romero and other experts have declined to state it clearly,  the added travel distance to some of these community residents results in a veritable “poll tax ” and leads to further disenfranchisement, . Subjective signature disqualification also creates opportunity for disenfranchisement and was predicted by election experts

The bill originally emanated from the ” Colorado Model ”  of elections and was  promulgated by Colorado based vendor DOMINION  The act is notorious not for what it mandates but what it ignores. The fact there is ZERO mention of the software used to tabulate the votes creates a severe point of misdirection to the layperson voter.  This is unfortunate as the authors of the bill positioned it as a security measure when this  is not the case. The authors were briefed extensively but chose to omit the work of the open source software security experts.

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